Living in an ever changing and volatile world, predicting the future of our geopolitical climate can seem like a futile and nearly impossible task. The election of President Trump, the shocking result of the BREXIT vote, and North Korea’s steady development of intercontinental missiles and nuclear warheads caught many by surprise. During the past year, Academy Securities and its Advisory Board, which includes several former United States military officers, have attempted to make sense of the headlines and the decisions of today’s global leaders. Beginning in July of 2016, Academy has released sixteen essays, ranging from topics such as U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan to the ramifications of the most recent French presidential election. Given the firm’s unique military background, Academy Securities aims to provide its clientele with insights on global events and their potential effects on market dynamics. Listed below are some of the commentaries that Academy has made within the last year.
U.S. Troops in Afghanistan: In a July 7th, 2016 article titled, “U.S. Presence in Afghanistan,” Academy Securities anticipated that the level of United States troops in Afghanistan would remain in full force for the foreseeable future. The same article also opined that without constant U.S. oversight and heavy military involvement, Afghan host forces would prove ineffective in quelling Taliban expansion throughout the country. Since early July, the current 8,400 U.S. troops authorized by President Obama have remained in the country and are now expected to be augmented by as many as several thousand more troops during this fighting season. In addition, an increased U.S. focus on ISIS in Iraq and Syria has led to reduced attention on the Taliban in Afghanistan. During that time, Taliban control has expanded significantly as Afghan forces have proven unable to operate independently of U.S. leadership. The Taliban’s current control in Afghanistan has not been this widespread since the arrival of U.S. troops in 2001.
U.S. Presence in the South China Sea: In the firm’s second essay, published on August 16th, 2016, titled “China’s Blue Water Navy… Embrace It,” Academy remarked on the significant growth of the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea within the past several years. The firm argued that the United States should similarly augment its naval presence in the region to contend with its counterpart to the East. The article stated that the United States must “rebuild its withered and weakened capacity and willingness to lead and influence actions internationally.” Within the past year, the South China Sea has become an even greater source of contention, with Beijing increasingly asserting its unilateral control over the contested water. The United States is now periodically demonstrating its military capabilities in the disputed waters through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), despite Chinese grievances that such operations on behalf of the United States infringe on Chinese sovereignty.
U.S. Relations with Turkey: Less than a month after the failed Turkish coup, Academy Securities published an article on August 25th, 2016, commenting both on the botched coup and on the standing of U.S.-Turkey relations. Author General (Ret.) Marks stated that regardless of the attempted coup, and despite President Erdogan’s alleged human rights abuses and autocratic tendencies, the relationship between the two countries would most likely be too valuable for either nation to sacrifice. While the United States has both remained critical of Erdogan’s domestic policies and maintained support for Syrian rebels whom Erdogan opposes such as the Kurds, the diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Turkey have not faltered. Incirlik Air Base in South-Central Turkey has remained critical to the U.S. offensives against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In fact, after meeting in May of 2017, Trump and Erdogan proudly declared a “new era” of Turkish-U.S. relations.
North Korea Nuclear Capability: In an article published on September 15th, 2016, Academy maintained that without more aggressive U.S. policies and enhanced diplomacy with other powerful countries, it is likely that North Korea will soon possess intercontinental nuclear capacity. In the article titled “Opportunity,” author General (Ret.) Marks posits, “time is currently [North Korea’s] only limiting factor. Our behavior must change or theirs never will.” From the time that General Marks’ issued his cautionary declaration to the present, the United States has failed both to act with a strong fist and to garner support from other allied nations. China has remained unwilling to level substantive sanctions against Pyongyang, while Russia has refused to take any punitive measures whatsoever. North Korea now appears to have possession of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States. Due to inaction and lack of international cooperation, North Korea currently stands as perhaps the greatest threat to the security of the United States. The window is closing on the opportunity to alter Pyongyang’s behavior.
Syria, U.S. Stance on Bashar al-Assad: In September of 2016, Academy contended that despite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian actions and blatant disregard for human rights, the United States ought to stop propagating the Syrian rebels’ fight against Assad. The war has become too bloody, produced far too many refugees, and has taken up too many resources that could have been used in the fight against ISIS. ISIS must be isolated, destroyed, and relentlessly attacked, an effort which requires “total cooperation and coordination among all U.S. allies,” along with other involved nations such as Russia. Throughout the year, Academy remained steadfast in its belief that the United States should sever ties with the rebels. In the piece published on June 27th, 2017 titled “Storm, No Surprise,” the firm reiterated, “The United States should admit that the Assad regime in Damascus is not going anywhere.” Nearly a month later, President Trump finally announced that the U.S. would no longer be providing support to rebel factions, recognizing that funding the rebel groups is not in line with the United States’ greatest long-term interests.
The 2017 French Presidential Election: Months before the election, on September 15th, 2016, Academy Securities provided insight on France’s two Presidential frontrunners, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, and their starkly opposite views on French immigration and inclusivity. Academy argued it is the United States’ prerogative to intervene in the election on behalf of Emmanuel Macron, to ensure that a future France will no longer be a breeding ground for international terror. As anticipated, the United States did not stay silent as former President Barack Obama gave his unqualified support to the far more liberal Emmanuel Macron. While we are yet to see if Macron’s more inclusive stance will ameliorate tensions between Muslim immigrants and French citizens, he is already promising policies that are far more constructive than his predecessor or presidential opponent.
The Future of Cyberspace: Ever since Russia’s cyber “influence operation” into our Presidential election, it has become increasingly obvious that we need diplomatic resolve to address the menace of cyber terrorism. The internet is a new domain that is largely ungoverned and unprotected. Academy suggested in its December 23rd, 2016 article “Winter is Coming,” that the only way to make substantive progress in the realm of cybersecurity is for both the United States and Russia to acknowledge that they have everything to lose if they don’t work together to govern actions online. While such a coalition seemed unlikely, President Trump announced in July of 2017 the possible creation of a US-Russian coalition on cybersecurity. Although the risk is significant, the purpose of the coalition is to “create a framework in which we have some capability to judge what is happening in the cyber world and who to hold accountable.” Much work is required for a coalition to take shape, but it is clear this administration has recognized the need for a coordinated effort to focus on global cybersecurity.
Contention over the Baltics: While the United States and other western countries have been focused on thwarting radical Islamic terrorism, Russia has worked restlessly to solidify its place as a world power. Russia’s annexation of Crimea, their military aggression against Syrian rebels, and their attempt to influence the U.S. election are all examples of Russia’s reach beyond its near abroad. Academy Securities noted in early February of 2017 that it wouldn’t be surprising if we witnessed another antagonistic move by Putin, perhaps even a Crimea-like “soft” invasion of one of the NATO Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Many pundits now believe that a Russian offensive is entirely possible. Russia has increased its military presence in the region and has a sizeable military exercise, Zapad 2017, planned in the Baltics for this September. In preparation, NATO has augmented the number of troops it has stationed in the region.
We were witness to a chaotic past year. During all the volatility, Academy Securities addressed several diplomatic and political narratives. From U.S. relations with Turkey and Russia, to military action in Syria and the South China Sea, Academy has tried to stay ahead of ever-changing geo-strategic pulses on behalf of its clients. As Academy begins its second year of research and analysis, the firm aims to both remain cognizant of current storylines, such as the rise of North Korea or the fall of Venezuela, and provide observations on emerging geo-political developments.
Major General Spider Marks, US Army retired, is a member of the board of advisors of Academy Securities and a CNN national security and military analyst.