Key Points:
• After a few weeks of euphoria between Washington and Pyongyang, something went sideways.
• Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has taken two trips over the past month to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un. The summit is set for June 12th, in Singapore…or is it?
• The summit will happen as planned.
Background:
Kim Jung-Un announced yesterday that he would abandon the summit with President Trump. Although it can be difficult to ever truly understand the motivation for North Korean statements or actions, Kim appears to be threatened by the routine and ongoing U.S.-South Korea defensive military exercise, Foal Eagle. Kim also indicated that North Korea takes issue with the U.S. position that the North denuclearize.
Situation:
Foal Eagle is part of a series of military exercises that the U.S. and South Korean military coalition routinely conduct. Talk about “showing your hand”… these exercises are never a surprise. In fact, North Korea increases its intelligence collection during these exercises to better understand the coalition’s capabilities. There is no reason to believe Kim was surprised or concerned about the objective of this exercise. He has been through this before.
The U.S. position is that North Korea must denuclearize; however, there has never been a prescribed timeline. In the recent visit Secretary Pompeo had with Kim, the U.S. agreed to provide Kim (and his regime) security guarantees. Kim must have assumed that this “guarantee” would inevitably require him to give up his nuclear leverage.
Why it Matters:
As long as South Korea asks the United Sates to remain on the Peninsula, the readiness level of our military partnership is non-negotiable. The only way to ensure readiness is through aggressive and thorough military exercises. In fact, even Kim has said he understands why the U.S. military is on the Peninsula and that exercises are a necessary part of their presence. Maybe his outburst is simply diplomatic recidivism. He has appeared positively reasonable lately and perhaps felt he must remind the world of his whimsy and unpredictability. Only he knows.
The Kim regime now has a seat at the table. Kim has a nuclear capability, is just shy of weaponizing it (if not already there), and has delivery means that extend his threatening reach beyond Northeast Asia. Without nukes, Kim reverts to a peninsular annoyance. Kim can agree to a nuclear freeze and the requisite inspection protocols necessary to ensure compliance. However, he will never give up his nukes. President Trump will be gone in two or six years. Not Kim. He will not allow his regime to be at risk. He will play nice now but retain flexibility. Our national election cycle is not on his timeline. For Kim, this is a long game.
Original Post 05/17/2018