Academy Securities Geopolitical Intelligence Group
U.S. Troops attacked in Iraq
What has Happened:
Multiple missile launches, attributed to Iran have struck military bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.
Why it Matters:
The first reaction from the Academy Team and our Geopolitical Intelligence Group is that we hope there are no casualties. The response from Iran, so far, is well within the bounds of what the U.S. would have prepared and planned for. Force protection levels have been elevated for the past few days and deployed service members have been postured in hardened, defensive, positions.
The view, so far, is that unless Iran does something more, our response to them will be wholly contingent on the number and level of casualties. Additionally, this level of retaliation by Iran has been viewed as the most probable outcome by Academy’s experts. As we await further battle damage assessments, our hearts and prayers go out to those in harm’s way defending our country.
One thing to remember: despite many news reports to the contrary, we believe that the US. risked escalation on purpose and with a plan that leveraged other elements of U.S. power, including economic, diplomatic, and information.
“We are currently not sure what the effects of the Iranian missile strikes are, but that will make a difference on next steps. We have a series of response options planned which I am sure are being updated daily based on Iranian posture. Iran’s warning that if strikes are launched from another country upon them that they will retaliate against the host country can limit some options. I believe our forces in Iraq are defensively postured and a Ranger Battalion and B-52s have been deployed to the region in addition to the brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division. Ground forces will be capable of action inside of Iraq and Syria in response – either reactively or proactively. Our strategic reach gives us a hammer that Iran cannot ignore. With the current administration, it is hard to judge whether responses will be proportional or escalatory. I would guess proportional if no loss of life and escalatory if loss of life occurs. In the coming hours, watch movement of missile shooters, carriers, and air refuelers to judge our response capabilities. While there may be flexible deterrent options, they are also ready to act.”
– General Frank Kearney
Original Post 01/08/2020