Background:
In 2015, more than four years after the outbreak of the Syrian Civil war, Russia carried out its first airstrike in the besieged country. Russia’s military intervention claimed to be counter-ISIS; however, many anti-Assad rebel factions were targeted. Vladimir Putin is a committed supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his continued authority over the Syrian people. Since 2014, the United States has been fighting ISIS in Syria. Despite attempts at cooperation in Syria, tensions have remained high between Russia and the US.
What has happened:
* This morning, President Trump warned that airstrikes against Syria were imminent.
* Russia responded by saying any incoming missiles (and their sources) would be shot down.
* French President, Emmanuel Macron has called for a “strong joint response” to the latest chemical attack.
* Navy Destroyer, USS Donald Cook, left port in Cyprus earlier this week. The Destroyer is armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which were used in response to last year’s chemical attack.
Why it matters:
* A Military response is expected to be stronger than last year’s; expect the destruction of any means of delivery for chemical weapons – airplanes, helicopters, artillery tubes, and crews.
* Syria has long served as a proxy war for many nations. Iran, Russia, and Turkey are all vying for influence in the somewhat ungoverned state; any US-Russia hostilities will intensify an already unstable dynamic.
“The price of poker just went up based on the POTUS tweet. Both Russia and the US are now at the center of the US response rather than Syria and President Assad. The escalation in rhetoric is dangerous but, in my view, very Trump-like. I suspect the Russians probably don’t have the density of counter-missile capabilities to support their rhetoric. The US can engage and re-engage multiple times, but I think the Russians will have great difficulty responding beyond an initial volley. Based on the President’s tweet, I suspect the US options will be more robust. There is a significant risk to Russian prestige if they try to counter and it doesn’t go well.”Lieutenant General (Ret.) Frank Kearney
“As part of the synchronization of the elements of national power (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic), the president is responding to Russian threats to shoot down coalition missiles. This and diplomatic measures such as proposed UN resolutions, are a necessary part of the information and diplomatic preparation that can either shape or avoid military action.”
Brigadier General (Ret.) Anthony Tata
Original Post 04/12/2018