Asia should be America’s top national security priority. Right now, it isn’t. Even in chaos and uncertainty, the United States exerts unprecedented influence internationally and is cloaked in immense powers. With the snap of a finger, the United States can make a difference. Let’s look at what’s happening in Asia today.
Early Friday, terrorists conducted a well coordinated raid in Manila against a soft target that had every characteristic of an international incendiary action. While the objectives of the attacker(s) are being debated, the attack has all the hallmarks of an ISIS-inspired operation.
The Philippines military has been fighting an Islamic insurgency on the southern Island of Mindanao for decades. Over the past few years, the spread of radical Islam has found favorable support where governance is rare. This is an area for rich and fertile recruiting of the vulnerable to join the ranks of metastasizing radicalism.
The last thing the world needs is growing terrorism in South East Asia (SEA). However, the conditions are aligned for its spread. Philippine President Duterte is a thug. His political agenda has two prongs: kill as many drug users as his administration can (thousands to date) and do his part to further distance Manila from Washington politically.
We should not be surprised by this recent horror in Manila. The United States will always lean in to resist and attack terrorism where it emerges. It now has been overly complicated by our weakened presence in the region. American law enforcement and intelligence will support the Philippines. However, terrorism won a tactical victory because of the fractured relationship between our two nations.
Not only has radical terrorism become a part of the region but also hosts the struggle between an expanding China and an adventuresome Saudi Arabia. Specifically, Indonesia is at an inflection point. First, it must embrace the promise of regional support from China or accept the global advantage of a stronger relationship with the United States. Second, Indonesia must strengthen its tradition of a moderate, accepting, and thoughtful brand of Islam or risk aligning with the radical and hardline teachings of Saudi Arabia’s madrasas.
Over many years, America’s time and treasure have been diverted fighting existential terrorism in the middle east. As the United States exercises muscles it hasn’t used in awhile, China, by comparison, has been busy in SEA (especially in Indonesia). China seeks to own Indonesian ports and, as a result, the international flow of commerce through the region.
For obvious reasons Jakarta has a decision to make: embrace Beijing, embrace Washington, or embrace both. The third option is a throw away. Washington has a decision to make as well. In April 2019, Indonesia will hold its next general elections. Let’s hope American leadership makes it clear that Indonesia is more than simply important to our collective national security. It is critical to global peace and stability.
The clash of titans has shifted east. Asia deserves our sincere focus.
As we know, North Korea has nukes. It continues to develop missile technology that with every new missile launch (three in the last two weeks), moves the regime in Pyongyang closer to realizing an ICBM. China and the United States agree that a nuclear Korean peninsula is unacceptable. North Korea must modify its behavior on its own or it must be forced to change.
South Korea has a new President, democratically elected just last month following the arrest of the former President. Apparently, newly elected President Moon Jae-In was not notified about the deployment of additional launchers of the Theater High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system in the south by the U.S. He was elected to assert Seoul’s independence from Washington. Not a good way to deliver on a fundamental campaign promise. Look, Korean political leaders always reflect Korean pride and strength. Our alliance is not at risk but fissures like this (if true), are avoidable.
Today, the western Pacific has three U.S. carrier battlegroups on station, a prudent strategic move in light of the current uncertainty in the region. What’s clear is that Asia has been a second-tier national security priority for almost two decades. It is only through the vigilance of our regionally deployed military and alliances that we’ve been able to ensure stability. Additionally, we’ve been fortunate. Readiness of our military forces has never been at risk; however, our posture in Asia has been.
America never followed through on its promise many years ago “to pivot to Asia.” However, Asia pivoted to us. I’m not sure that’s good news or bad news but it is what it is. Let’s not squander it. A young soldier told me years ago, “better to be lucky than good.” Not that I agree that serendipity is a solution, but let’s take advantage of our “luck” and stay focused on Asia.