In recent weeks, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has been the subject of numerous headlines with a series of maneuvers to strengthen control and dominance in the region. The man behind the wheel, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS), whose national authority has advanced at an unprecedented rate, has vowed to transform the kingdom into modernity. Last week, KSA (along with Kuwait) advised their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. These announcements came within days of an attempted Houthis missile strike on Riyadh and the unexpected resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri. Most Recently, KSA co-sponsored a UN resolution with Israel, pointing to evolving alliances in the region amid growing Saudi-Iran tensions. This week, in a demonstration of support, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, visited Qatar. The economic isolation of Qatar by its fellow Arab states threatens the already tenuous coalition of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Saudi Arabia
- MBS’ vision of expanded Saudi regional influence: start a war next door in Yemen, consolidate power internally, create a diplomatic crisis with Lebanon (forcing Lebanese PM to resign for being too weak on Hezbollah), escalate tensions with Lebanon, and forge new alliances to thwart Iranian Shiite influence.
- The war in Yemen continues with no resolution in sight; Houthi rebel resilience threatens Hadi’s tenure as Yemen’s President as well as KSA’s campaign to exert regional military dominance.
- A Saudi led conflict in Lebanon is never a sure thing; just ask the Israeli Defense Force after its 2006 debacle.
- Iranian backing has seen tactical and strategic military success in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Iran won a proxy fight in Syria simply by ensuring Assad’s survival and Yemen is in shambles while KSA is unable to defeat or effectively counter Iran’s support of the Houthi rebels.
Lebanon
- Hariri, a pro-Saudi Sunni politician, resigns; Lebanon still has a President but the position is honorific.
- Hezbollah cannot be controlled or effectively politically muted.
- Next…proxy if not a hot war.
Syria
- Ungoverned space.
- Most significant success is liberating Raqqa from ISIS; caliphate is shrinking, but ideology remains vibrant.
- Russia involved deeply in an effort to counter U.S. interests, they will be successful.
- Assad will die an old man…in power.
Turkey
- A NATO ally…for now. NATO authority could be questioned should Turkey depart; however, NATO survived the departure of France in the late 1960s.
- Turkey outraged at US backing for YPG’s (People Protection Units) fight against ISIS; Turkey views YPG as a terrorist organization aligned with the PKK (Kurdistan Worker’s Party) which the US considers a terrorist organization.
- Escalation of diplomatic tension between the US and Turkey threatens the long-standing alliance; the region will benefit if Turkey remains a vibrant member of NATO.
Iran
- Iran has extensive influence in spreading its interest through proxies.
- Sanctions have been lifted and they are developing nukes under the JCPOA.
- The Saudi-Iran influence battle continues with many opportunities to achieve tactical victories and an increased risk of strategic losses on both sides.
- Iran remains in the catbird seat.