Our Head of Macro Strategy, Peter Tchir, has over 25 years of experience in the industry focusing on all fixed income products. His background helps bring a unique frame of reference to Academy’s market strategy and analysis. Peter works closely with the Geopolitical Intelligence Group to provide market read-throughs from Geostrategic Risk.
Read morePeter Tchir was involved in restructuring the balance sheets of several Japanese Bank and Trust Companies and helped their U.S. branches create structured vehicles that allowed them to retain their presence while shrinking their balance sheet as they shrunk their U.S. presence in the late 90’s.
He was involved in Bankers Trust’s team that dealt with their LTCM exposure and was part of the initiative that transitioned Bankers Trust’s loan holdings to Deutsche Bank during that takeover. Peter was also involved in transactions with monolines when they were forced to change their rules on margins for synthetic CDO exposure and worked with a large U.S. bank on selling their retained risk once those margin rules had changed (early 2000s).
He has run Total Return Swap programs at Banker’s Trust, Deutsche Bank, and UBS which were a conduit to funding leveraged loans and distressed debt for hedge funds. These involved both recourse and non-recourse structures. He also participated in selling the first synthetic CDO that included a high yield component. He served as a board member of CDS IndexCo (who created the CDX suite of CDS products) and was a representative of his firm at CDS protocols.
As an independent consultant he helped firms navigate the first TALF deal and to consider how firms should respond to the Basle rule changes. In fact, his white paper was accepted in the official comment period by the BIS.
Peter and the Macro Strategy team at Academy is committed to finding entrepreneurial ways to add value to clients across verticals as they consider the market risk landscape. Peter also serves as a senior mentor to our transitioning military veterans who are building career equity as they join the Academy team, and is instrumental to our social mission of mentoring, hiring and training veterans.
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Post FOMC Bond Market Outlook – (11/04/2021)
All Fed Meetings Are Equal, But Some Are More Equal Than Others – (10/31/2021)
Central Bank Policy Mistake or Fund Positioning Mistake – (10/29/2021)
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Road to Nowhere – (06/06/2021)
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Where There is Smoke There is Fire – (05/09/2021)
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Look Ma No Hands! – (05/02/2021)
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Mildly Bemused – (01/15/2021)
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America’s Draghi Moment – (10/11/20)
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Middle of the Road – (6/29/20)
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The Struggle With Staying Bearish – (6/21/20)
Should I Still Be Bearish – (6/16/20)
Still Squeamish – (6/14/20)
Fed DC COVID Positioning Liquidity – (6/11/20)
The Last Gasps of This Rally – (6/8/20)
Shifting Gears – (6/4/20)
Stocks vs Bonds the Dollar – (6/2/20)
At a Loss For Words – (5/31/20)
Shifting Market Impact of Increasing Tension with China – (5/29/20)
4 Reasons to Stay Bullish (the WFH to Reopen Rotation will Continue) – (5/27/20)
Investing Today for the Economy of Tomorrow – (5/25/20)
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The Rotation from WFH to ReOpen – (5/22/20)
Georgia on My Mind – (5/18/20)
What it Takes to Make Me Bearish – (5/10/2020)
Future Conditions Not Present Conditions Matter – (5/7/20)
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Headlines You Won’t See – (4/30/20)
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The Check Mark Recovery – (4/24/20)
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So Long and Thanks for All the Fish – (4/17/20)
Three Letter Word Day – (4/15/20)
Alphabet Soup – (4/14/20)
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2 Plots, 3 Characters and 1 Maslow Updated – (4/09/20)
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Good Bad & Questionable – (3/30/20)
You’re Going to Need a Bigger Boat? – (3/25/20)
Credit and Volatility Are Leading The Way – (3/24/20)
This is Not Martial Law, What More Military Involvement Really Means – (3/22/20)
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A Lot of Encouraging Signs – (3/19/20)
Future Facts – (3/19/20)
Unprecedented Market Environment – (3/18/20)
Why The Worst Might Be Behind Us – (3/14/20)
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Demand Shocks Outpacing Support, TARP & ETF/Passive Fears – (3/12/20)
Inflection Points in a Liquidity Vacuum – (3/11/20)
Credit and Financial Bubbles – (3/10/20)
Playing Devil’s Advocate with the Virus Numbers (and the weather) – (3/8/20)
What Will Make Me Turn to Risk-On – (3/6/20)
Traffic Jams, Travel & Hope vs Doom – (3/1/20)
Did Someone Hit the Sell Everything Button – (2/26/20)
Garbage in Garbage Out vs What We Know – (2/25/20)
From Nervous to Frightened – (2/23/2020)
Testing the Fallen Angel Migration – (2/17/2020)
My Hips Don’t Lie But Statistics Might – (2/17/2020)
Uncertainty, GIGO, Tourism, and Supply Chains – (2/9/2020)
From Panic to Complacency in Record Time? – (2/6/2020)
The Coronavirus and Everything Else – (2/2/2020)
Coronavirus – (1/26/2020)
From a December to Remember to a February to Forget– (1/20/2020)
How Geopolitical Risk Could Lead to Positive ‘Surprises’ – (1/11/2020)
It’s Not Too Early to Worry about the Fed – (1/7/2020)
Redrawing Lines in the Sand – (1/5/2020)
A D.I.M.E. Framework for China, Trade & Strategic Competition – (12/8/2019)
A December to Remember? – (12/2/2019)
Rates, Cyclicals, CLO’s & Leveraged Loan Madness (Part I) – (11/10/2019)
Around the World with Academy Securities – (11/1/2019)
Three Cuts and You’re Out! – (10/27/2019)
Sell the Trade Truce News – (10/13/2019)
Spot the Difference – (10/9/2019)
Be Cautious on Stocks AND Bonds! – (10/2/2019)
Holy Whipsaw, Batman! – (9/15/2019)
Money for Nothing – (9/8/2019)
You Can Wear White After Labor Day, But Don’t Buy Treasuries! – (9/3/2019)
Lean, Mean, Fighting Machines Emerge From Debt Diet – (7/28/2019)
What a Week! What’s Next? – (7/13/2019)
Levels & Markets to Watch for China & Trade – (5/29/2019)
Crossing the Rubicon with China – (5/12/2019)
Fixed Income Market Outlook – (4/22/2019)
Macro Sentiment versus Reality – (4/7/2019)
China Update – Geopolitics, Macro & Trade – (3/31/2019)
How and Why Jay and Steve Should Steepen the Curve – (3/26/2019)
Inverted Curves and Uncertainty – (3/24/2019)
SOFR vs LIBOR – Round 3 of the Fight – (3/6/2019)
Is Economic Data About to Improve? – (3/3/2019)
Goodbye CDX, Hello TRS – (2/26/2019)
Trading the Trade Deal – (2/25/2019)
Fallen Angels Went to Purgatory Instead of Hell – (2/3/2019)
I Like Big Banks – (1/14/2019)
New Year’s Resolution – A Debt Diet – (1/6/2019)
IG Beta – CDX vs TRS vs ETFs – (1/5/2019)
The Corporate Debt Chart You Never See – (1/2/2019)
GE, the 100 Billion Dollar Credit in the Room – (11/21/2018)
DEBT is a 4-Letter Word – For Now – (11/19/2018)
Comparing Floating Rate Notes – LIBOR vs. SOFR Bonds – (10/27/2018)
It Ain’t Over till it’s Over – (10/22/2018)
Is High Yield Really a Good Short? – (10/3/2018)
Sentiment vs Reality Q4 2018 – (10/1/2018)
Quick Update – Trade, Credit and Rates – (9/17/2018)
LIBOR vs. SOFR – (9/4/2018)
Don’t Be Afraid of the Big Bad BBB Bonds – (8/27/2018)
Issuer Note – Take Advantage of August – (8/20/2018)
Happy Happy Joy Joy – (8/19/2018)
Cloudy With a Chance of Contagion – (8/13/2018)
Brother, Can You Spare a Trillion? – (8/5/2018)
It Is a Trade War, Not a Trade Tiff – (7/11/2018)
Untangling Credit Markets – (6/24/2018)
Market Risks are Rising & Not Being Priced In – (6/17/2018)
Mind the Liquidity Gap – (6/12/2018)
Pain Trades, Liquidity, Corrections & Tail Risk Hedges – (6/12/2018)
Inflection Points Everywhere You Look – (5/21/2018)
A Fragile Bond Market – (5/7/2018)
Time to Price in a Trade War Victory – (5/4/2018)
When to Fade the Equity Rally? – (4/29/2018)
I’ve Fallen and I Can’t Get Up – (4/25/2018)
When Fixed Income Isn’t So Fixed – (4/22/2018)
Rates and Credit Outlook – (4/8/2018)
Holiday Shortened Week – (4/1/2018)
LIBOR Updated – (3/29/2018)
Where the Risk Is and Where it Isn’t – (3/28/2018)
LIBOR OIS – (3/24/2018)
Still Bearish – (3/24/2018)
The Battle for IP, Unfair Trade, Technicals and Fundamentals – (3/23/2018)
A Contrarian’s Dream March – (3/18/2018)
Peter Tchir | Head of Macro Strategy
Peter Tchir is Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has both traded and structured products – ranging from complex transactions, to junk bonds, to the liquid CDS indices and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him to focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise has built a strong relationship as having keen insight into risk and identifying opportunities on a global macro basis with an emphasis on fixed income and is able to communicate these opportunities and strategies effectively internally and to customers.
Important Disclosures:
Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.
Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by Academy Securities to buy, sell, or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by Academy Securities and is not financial research nor a product of Academy Securities. It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Academy Securities. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and Academy Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Academy Securities has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
Index Benchmarks
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of “failed” or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of hedge funds generally.
THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.