Iranian Provocation

Background:

Israel’s official military role in the Syrian civil war is limited, and until the last year, not formally acknowledged. In December 2017, the Israeli Air Force confirmed it attacked Syrian government arms convoys and Lebanon’s Hezbollah nearly 100 times during the more than six years of the conflict in Syria. Israel’s primary objective is to challenge and eliminate expanding Iranian influence in the region.

What has happened:

On Saturday, in its most serious engagement in neighboring Syria since the civil war began, an Israeli Apache helicopter shot down an Iranian drone that had entered Israeli airspace. Israel launched eight F-16s to strike Iranian targets deep in Syria before one of the jets was shot down by Syrian air defense.

The Syrian military denied the drone violated Israeli airspace, stating it was on an intelligence gathering mission of Islamic State militants.
For the first time in more than 30 years, Israel has lost a fighter aircraft.
On Sunday, the White House called on “Iran and its allies to cease provocative actions”; supporting Israel’s right to defend itself from the Iran-backed Syrian and militia forces.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is currently on a Middle East trip visiting Egypt, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.

Why it matters:

The Syrian civil war serves as a proxy war for tensions in the region and beyond.

Iran is showing continued success in expanding its influence in the region.
The Iranian drone was modeled after US drone technology, displaying an increased military capability and threat by Iran and its allies.
The conflict in Syria has never been restricted to its borders and Israel has always been protective of its sovereignty. The loss of an Israeli aircraft will not alter that dynamic.
Expect increased Israeli cross-border military operations into Syria; this is not an isolated incident.

” I was struck by the cost of the action versus a drone penetration. Israel’s rapid punitive retaliation for an incursion of its territory reminds all that the Syrian air defenses are capable. Past Israeli successes over 35 years do not mitigate the risk of each subsequent Israeli raid into Syria. This is text book Israeli over-confidence. ”

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Frank Kearney

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