Key Points:
- Tensions with Iran have increased but military posture has not strengthened
- International support is needed for the Trump administration’s sanctions to be effective
- Iran is a malignant global actor but engagement with Iran is necessary for a diplomatic resolution
- There is a real risk of unintentional conflict escalation with Iran
Background:
Over the past two weeks, tensions with Iran have loomed large. In the final month before the U.S. reimposes harsh sanctions on the Islamic Republic, both Iran and the U.S. are on a campaign to garner support from the international community. Iran remains a destabilizing actor on the global stage. However, our Geopolitical Intelligence Group has argued that continued engagement (and sometimes cooperation) with Iran is a necessary element to achieving our national interests and tempering the destructive and dangerous influences of Iran.
What Has Happened:
Recently, we have seen the Trump Administration compelled to act diplomatically, rhetorically, and militarily. While addressing the UN, President Trump described Iran as a “corrupt dictatorship” that “sows chaos, death, and destruction.” The State Department, citing risks from Iran, closed its consulate in Basra, Iraq. Though no damages or injuries were reported, rockets fired from Iran landed some 300 yards from the consulate hours before its announced closing. The State Department also walked away from a mostly immaterial, 60-year-old treaty between the U.S. and Iran in response to a ruling from the International Court of Justice – that U.S. sanctions on Iran must exempt humanitarian items. In contrast with the public rhetoric rows, U.S. military presence has been noticeably absent in the Persian Gulf. There has not been an aircraft carrier presence in the region since earlier this Spring – when a shift to counter Russia and China began to take shape.
Why it Matters:
Iran, while not under the same strategic threat umbrella as China and Russia, is a significant pillar of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy. Iran’s militarized nuclear ambition and its provocative military and cyber-attacks are threats to the United States. Iran is an enemy. Since the rise of ISIS, the Western Coalition and the Kurdish Militias, along with Iran, were critical to the diminishing footprint and capabilities of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. However, Iran’s primary motivation in Syria is to ensure Assad remains in power. Syria continues to be a chaotic and dangerous mess. If the U.S. hopes to see stability in the region and stymie the flow of refugees, it will need to communicate and cooperate with Iran. As we near the Nov 4th initiation of renewed sanctions (since the President refused to recertify the JCPOA), the U.S. will rely on its allies to help enforce its vision of containing a nuclear Iran. The objective of the sanctions is clear, but how they will be applied and enforced without international cooperation remains uncertain.
“The United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA has fueled the fight of hate, which is the core ideological tenet of the revolution. Another generation of Iranian youth now has had the narrative reinforced that the West is untrustworthy and remains the “evil Satan.” The attacks in Syria fit into the Iranian revolutionary narrative as well. The IRGC, as keepers of the revolution, are like excited particles seeking engagement. The stage is set for miscalculation and the unintended escalation of any single event is possible. The circumstances we find ourselves in are partially of our own making and we have played into the Iranian narrative which has strengthened its hardliners and shaped the outlook of the country’s youth. We need to recognize that we are the only nation which can physically destroy the Iranian nuclear program if required. The JCPOA did nothing to reduce our capability yet we act as though we have lost some capability. Our sanctions will take a long time to have any effect and likely will have grudging European support. The Russians and Chinese have no reason to support U.S. sanctions and will be spoilers. The Trump administration’s path is not clear, but their rhetoric and actions will lead to countermeasures by the Iranians and its surrogates. We need to be on watch, as I am sure our military commanders are, to ensure we are not accidentally pulled into a dangerous situation we do not seek.”
Lieutenant General Frank Kearney Academy Securities’ Advisory Board Member.
Original Post 10/5/2018