Key Points:
The US should remain in the JCPOA. The President should choose to continue to certify the deal for six months as the current deal is modified.
Background:
President Trump campaigned on a promise to fully review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, describing it as “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.” Last October, the administration completed its review of the JCPOA. By law, the President must certify every 90 days that Iran is technically compliant with the terms of the JCPOA. Additionally, this quarterly certification by the White House must acknowledge that the suspension of economic sanctions against Iran remains “appropriate and proportionate to the specific and verifiable measures taken by Iran with respect to terminating its illicit nuclear program.” Tomorrow, May 8th, the President will make his decision on the status of the JCPOA.
What has happened:
In the past two weeks, the President hosted both President Macron of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany. Both leaders separately tried to persuade President Trump not to torpedo the deal. Not surprisingly, Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, declared that Iran would abandon the deal if the US pulled out. Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel stated that Iran did not disclose a covert nuclear site to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the international inspection body promoting the “safe, secure, and peaceful use of nuclear technology.”
Why it matters:
The US should remain in the JCPOA. The President should choose to continue to certify the deal for six months as the current deal is modified. A new and better deal would incorporate two provisions: unannounced inspections (to include both nuclear facilities and military bases housing the missiles that are required to deliver nuclear weapons) and the elimination of the decade-long sunshine clause that affords Iran a pathway to nuclear weapons after 2025.
This clearly would set the agenda for our new Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. It would be his primary job to modify, not scuttle, the deal. It can be done and there is every reason to believe he can successfully lead the effort.
If this can’t be accomplished, then the deal deserves to be killed. At least by extending the deadline by six months, the 5+1 signatories (the UN permanent security council members China, Russia, France, UK, and the US + Germany) will have time to get it right or better prepare if it goes wrong.
Right now, an inadequate JCPOA is better than no JCPOA, which would unleash Iran to race or buy its way to a nuclear capability. Better to be in the mix, as messy, chaotic, and ambiguous as it is than to walk away. Iranian nuclear ambition may only be tempered by international cooperation and condemnation…but when has Iran ever cared about that?
Original Post 05/7/2018