Following the election victory of Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, France will remain a willing, and hopefully, leading member of the European Union (EU). At least for now, and hopefully into the future, the fracturing of the EU no longer appears inevitable.
Just last week, all evidence gave Marine Le Pen, a full-throated French populist who campaigned on a platform of strength and French assertiveness, a slight edge over her opponent. Her platform essentially was to declare France independent of the burdensome rules associated with EU membership. In her view, continued membership in the EU put France at risk diplomatically, economically, and in terms of its security. These were all seemingly solid reasons to re-assert France’s identity. It was an identity she felt was lost.
A few weeks ago, I attended a national security seminar in New York City that addressed the current and most troublesome global security challenges. Economists, justifiably, seemed to dominate the conference. Of all the elements of power, economics is the most tangible that can influence problems in their infancy or be used punitively in the form of sanctions to punish and hopefully modify bad behavior. At one point in the conference a Wall Street analyst declared rather agnostically (and certainly with a level of confidence that I could not challenge) that he was “the best short seller in the world of banking.” Based on the sounds of murmurs and chatter that erupted from the back of the room, the audience seemed largely unimpressed.
His proclamation, possibly true, was irrelevant. No one cared. Like this banker, Ms. Le Pen might have been the strongest person in France, and, not surprisingly, no one cared. She was irrelevant.
The short seller succeeded by reading the tea leaves of failure and collapse, not by providing remedies to thorny and inherently complex economic and market driven problems. Similarly, Le Pen succeeded by pointing out failures, but did not provide solutions acceptable to the French electorate.
The voters in France’s Presidential election on Sunday agreed. Ms. Le Pen’s bombast and stridency did not convince anyone that they were essential ingredients to building France’s path to its future. In contrast, Mr. Macron’s center left position of moderation might be like eating unsalted peanuts…appealing to some but not many, filling but spectacularly bland.
Look, there were many reasons for the French electorate to align itself with Le Pen and her desire to assert France’s authoritative position as a leader in international politics. Today, France struggles with several major issues that are timeless.
France’s economy is on an anemic growth trajectory. The work week is mandated by law at 35 hours. On average, French workers enjoy 15 hours each day of leisure time (including eating and sleeping). The mandatory retirement age is among the lowest in Europe. Unemployment holds steady at an alarmingly high 10 percent. Youth unemployment is greater than 23 percent, which has remained a chronic problem since the early 1980’s! No solutions exist; the French economic ship of state is potentially robust but remains adrift…still.
France is not safe. Under assault by radical Islam, France’s President, Francois Hollande, has declared terrorist attacks over the past few years as “acts of war.” He is correct.
Since 2015, France has suffered from 23 separate attacks. The most notable of these was the attack on Charlie Hebdo (the satirical magazine), on 7 January 2015 that left 12 dead.
On the evening of 13 November 2015, ISIS-inspired terrorists conducted simultaneous and well-coordinated attacks at various sites including the France-German soccer game and the Bataclan nightclub. In total, 130 were killed and 386 were injured.
On 14 July 2016 in Nice, a driver using his cargo truck as a weapon slammed into the crowds celebrating Bastille Day (France’s national day), killing 86 and injuring over 400. Undisputedly, France is at war against a well-documented and easily recognizable form of radicalized Islam.
Arguably, it is a war many describe as one that France is losing. France is concerned about its obvious vulnerability to attacks by radicalized Islamists. But France bears responsibility for the isolation of the Muslim community into “pockets” within its borders. The French worry, rightfully so, that their laws have incentivized the failure to integrate its immigrants. A legitimate distance exists among its various demographics. France is faced with victims on all sides of their self-created divide.
France must face its demons but further isolation within France and within Europe as advocated by Ms. Le Pen was not the correct choice. Marine Le Pen was not wrong; she just wasn’t right, right now. France is like an alcoholic, admitting its weaknesses while declaring its strengths in order to solve its most vexing problems. I suggest this election was a first step toward political sobriety.
Look, Le Pen was right to hold a mirror in front of France and ask if it liked what it saw. Like anyone in therapy, the truth hurt, but her remedy had too many bad side effects.
A France distancing itself from the rest of Europe was absolutely the wrong answer. The citizens of France agreed. Now, the ball’s in the court of the newly elected President to shape France’s future and deliberately take the immediate, tactical next steps. It’s time for the prose of action and less for the poetry of words.
Not surprisingly, Ms. Le Pen in her final debate with Mr. Macron observed that France, regardless of the outcome, would be led by a woman…her or German Chancellor Angela Merkel!
France and the rest of Europe have drafted off Merkel’s brand of leadership for the past twelve years. She is a European nationalist whose policies embrace a united Europe as more secure, more prosperous, and better aligned to shape the future of Europe than a divided one. Simply stated, a united Europe leans west; a divided Europe will lean east with each separate nation positioning itself favorably with a recidivist Russia. Those deals always end badly; just look at the previous century.
Europe must remain together…with all its warts and ugliness. For now, a French exit from Europe has been avoided. Let’s hope all of Europe saw how close isolationist populism was to becoming a reality. Brexit will happen but Frexit will not…at least not yet. However, sobriety can be fleeting.