As we approach President Trump’s visit to Asia over the next two weeks, global attention remains fixated on the growing strain between the United States and North Korea. Most recently, concern has concentrated on the repositioning of three American aircraft carriers. The USS Roosevelt and the USS Nimitz have found a new station operating in the western Pacific. They join the USS Reagan which maintains a permanent presence in the region conducting combined training with South Korea. While the DOD acknowledges this amassing is unusual, it should not necessarily signal alarm. This posturing is not an indicator that military operations are imminent. It is, however, a prudent move with our President in the Far East to have this “additional firepower” in close proximity. If for no other reason, at least it sends a message to the North Korean regime…“In case you forgot, we’re ready.”
A distinctive outcome of the tension between the U.S. and Pyongyang is a coordinated regional response. China, in a rare move, voted for the U.S. drafted, United Nations initiative bringing unparalleled sanctions against North Korea. Japan is making moves to have an offensive military capability again, and South Korea is lobbying to have operational control over its wartime military, undoing a 60+ year status quo. While the media focuses on North Korea, we should not overlook the rest the President’s journey and the evolving dynamic of our relationships in East Asia.
Philippines: According to police statistics, more than 3,000 suspects have been killed in anti-drug operations since Duterte became president on June 30, 2016. There has been an international condemnation of his so-called war on drugs. However, these human right’s abuses are not likely to affect a century old relationship with a dependable regional ally. The U.S. – Philippines relationship is too significant to abandon, and the U.S. has a higher chance of influencing positive change within the framework of their existing partnership.
Vietnam: Rapid industrial growth in the 21st century has positioned Vietnam as a potentially important trading partner. Enhanced trade cooperation between the U.S. and Vietnam would prove mutually beneficial.
Japan: Given the vulnerability faced by Japan during Pyongyang’s latest missile launches, North Korea will prove to be a prominent point of discussion. Japan’s recent elections and legislative action to build their military signals a growing concern over the regional threat.
China: A surprising show of solidarity in the face of the North Korean menace might have warmed the relationship between our two nations, but recent statements regarding markets and trade prove to be chilling. President Trump has long been critical of China’s heavy-handed influence over their markets and currency manipulation. Most recently, following the refusal to classify China as a market economy, the U.S. Commerce Department said “The state’s pervasive role in markets and involvement in the private sector causes fundamental distortions in its economy,” exacerbating tension between China and the U.S. before President Trump’s visit. While escalation on the Korean Peninsula is sure to be a topic on which the two powers can find common ground, the discussion of markets and trade will most influence the efficacy of the meeting.
South Korea: Following the Secretary of Defense’s visit to South Korea, the President, the National Security Advisor and Secretary Mattis have all doubled down on the stance that there is no scenario where North Korea has nuclear weapons. This “red line” is a risky one that muddies the water for continued diplomacy. Establishing these absolutes can be precarious as we saw with President Obama concerning Syria’s use of chemical weapons. In general, it’s best to avoid these hardline approaches. Diplomacy is most successful when there are options on the table. This is especially pertinent as the intelligence community has already confirmed North Korea has nuclear weapons and ICBMs. It may impede our continued pursuit of a diplomatic resolution if we have narrowed our options. South Korea, for their part, has pivoted to maintain open dialogue channels with the North. In a nationally televised address, the president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, stated “Our top priority is to maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula. Thus, armed conflict must be avoided under any circumstance. No military action on the Korean Peninsula shall be taken without prior consent of the Republic of Korea.” The public volatility between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jung-un has exacerbated the decades old sense of unease between the U.S. and South Korea. Most recently, Seoul’s first left-leaning government in a decade has asked for an accelerated transfer of the operational control over its military forces in an attempt to publicly separate South Korea and the U.S.’ methods of diplomacy. The administration must resolve this fissure — as a peaceful solution to the North Korean threat depends on a unified front.
Despite all the perceived chaos in the region, there is still plenty of opportunity in the Pacific. Consensus building and a multi-national approach to managing North Korea can help expand on and grow these opportunities. President Trump’s trip abroad is a sign of our continued commitment to our allies and a platform on which to forge new ones.