Background:
In the summer of 2012, Syria’s government confirmed that it had chemical weapons but stated these weapons would not be used against its people but only against “external aggression.” Later that year, President Obama stated that the use of chemical weapons would be considered crossing a “red-line”; changing the US military Response in Syria. Since 2010, there have been more than ten reported chemical attacks by the Assad Regime. In April of 2017, President Trump ordered targeted air strikes against a Syrian airfield from where a recent chemical attack was launched.
What has happened:
- Less than a week after President Trump said that he intended to pull the remaining US troops out of Syria, a chemical weapons attack against the Syrian town of Douma has killed more than 40 civilians.
- In a series of tweets yesterday morning, President Trump condemned the use of chemical weapons and blamed Russia and Iran for enabling the atrocity.
- On the heels of the last month’s nerve agent attack in the UK and escalating diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, President Trump admonished Vladimir Putin by name in his tweets.
Why it matters:
- Given the President’s “America First” policies, this action by Russia and Assad may strengthen his new national security team’s ability to convince him that remaining engaged in Syria is our most effective tool to influence Russia and Iran…and indirectly Iraq.
- US Central Command Commander, General Votel, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dunford, have both voiced the need to stay engaged in Syria; additionally, the Chairman has consistently stated that Russia is a significant concern to our national security.
- This is one of the first and most significant military and foreign policy decision points for President Trump and his new national security team; the global community will be observing their response.
“The Administration will likely wait for confirmation and attribution which is protocol in these situations. Considering Russia’s recent use of nerve agent on its own spies, followed by this Syrian chemical attack; the President will have to act with a greater effect than the last Syrian chemical strike. The DOD will expect elevated Syrian air defense alertness and the potential for a Russian-US air to air confrontation. I expect a coordinated response will take a few days to align capabilities with potential target sets as well as ensure counter-air capabilities and refueling assets are sufficient in the area of operations. The US Government should attack with a proportional response against Syrian forces or assets. This response should not be a hit on airfield infrastructure which is rapidly reparable; rather it should be a punitive attack on key IADS (integrated air defense systems), aircraft (fixed and rotary wing) and the Syrian forces attributed to the attack. Anything less will disappoint allies and will be viewed as an impotent response.”
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Frank Kearney
Original Post 04/9/2018