Academy Securities Geopolitical Intelligence Group:
A Game Changer with Iran
What has Happened:
A U.S. airstrike in Iraq killed Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Pentagon confirmed that President Trump authorized the strike based on the imminent threat faced by U.S forces and diplomats in the region. Pro-Iranian Iraqi paramilitary commander, Abu Mahdi al Mohandes, was also killed when their convoy was struck outside the Baghdad International Airport.
Why it Matters:
Soleimani was the most influential Iranian military commander of the last twenty or so years. He was responsible for many of the most sophisticated IED’s (improvised explosive device ) that killed at least 600 Americans during the conflict in Iraq. Over the years, he has built a very strong Shia militia force under his control in Iraq and Syria. As the commander of the IRGC, he was responsible for planning, coordinating, and supporting a range of malign activity in the region. I have a high degree of confidence that we could have targeted him before, so why now and what comes next?
Iran must respond. This is potentially the most destabilizing event in the region since we invaded Iraq. Shia Mobilization forces will undermine the Iraqi government by targeting U.S. forces and Iraq’s government won’t be able to control the chaos. It has changed the narrative in Iraq from a weak government – recent protests at the U.S. Embassy – to “down with America” and a violation of sovereignty.
The three elements to changing Iran’s position as a regional power and ultimately achieving regime change: 1. No development of nuclear capability 2. Rolling back their malign forces -IRGC and Quds Forces 3. Rolling back their missile capability
The Trump administration walked away from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). At the time of the agreement in 2015, the intelligence community assessed that Iran was 90-360 days from the Supreme Leader giving a green light to develop a nuclear device.
This strike confronts the heart and brain of the IRGC-Quds, and its malign activity. But it leaves behind a large special force and popular mobilization forces that will lash out.
Despite the significance of the administration’s actions and this recent strike, there remains no action on Iran’s missile capability that can reach all of our bases in the region and into Europe.
Will Iran escalate kinetically? I anticipate an asymmetric response – to include cyber. Will they attempt to drag Israel into this? The Israel Defense Force is quietly celebrating both Soleimani and Mohandes death but must be concerned about spillover effects. The Yemen theater is also in play. The Saudis are quietly celebrating as well but they must also be concerned about being caught up in this proxy war.
From Iran’s position, the U.S. has engaged in economic warfare and the sanctions are having a significant effect. Will Iran target the U.S. / global economy? In the past, they have demonstrated their cyber capability against oil and financial assets. They view the U.S. financial system as a critical U.S. vulnerability. We will see how much “will” the Supreme Leader has to push for cyber activity in the oil or financial sectors. This is a game changer.
– General Vincent Stewart
Original Post 01/02/2020