Key Points:
• The Trump administration has assured Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that the U.S. would not interfere as Turkey attempts to create a buffer zone
• Turkey views the U.S. backed Kurdish fighters as terrorists
• The U.S-Turkey relationship has deteriorated in recent years
Background:
Tensions between NATO allies, the U.S., and Turkey, have been high in the last few years. The atrophy of this strategic relationship comes in the wake of Turkey’s purchase of Russian air defense weapons, S400s, and the U.S. backing of Kurdish fighters (YPG) in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State. Turkey views the YPG as a threat due to its link to the Turkish separatist PKK, a group the Turkish government been confronting for decades. There is international agreement that the PKK is dangerous, and the U.S. and the EU consider it a terrorist organization. Turkish forces aim to create a buffer zone in Northern Syria, an area currently occupied by the YPG.
What Has Happened:
On an October 6th phone call with Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Trump offered a reversal of U.S. policy in Syria. President Trump, a longtime critic of U.S. military involvement in Syria and seemingly unending conflicts, assured Erdogan that while the U.S. would not limit Turkish advancement into northern Syria, it would bring harsh economic penalties against Turkey if Turkish troops attacked U.S. trained and armed Kurdish fighters. The first Turkish troops have crossed into northeastern Syria in preparation for a what appears to be a full-scale offensive.
Why it Matters:
“In the long run, it won’t make any difference, much of the attention paid is hype. A thousand or so U.S. boots on the ground in Syria will make no difference in the Turkish/Kurdish balance of power. The U.S. does not need military on the ground to come to the aid of Kurds if necessary. Air power can do that more rapidly and more effectively. Nor should anyone overstate American influence in Syria. Our footprint on the ground in Syria is very small compared with that of Turkey’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s. That said, regarding perceptions, the withdrawal may hurt morale among Syria’s dwindling opposition, but it will not result in the reconstitution of the caliphate.”
Lieutenant General (Ret.) David Deptula
“Our departure leaves a partner (the Kurds) alone and unprotected against what most expect will be a Turkish limited invasion to kill as many PKK as they can with little discrimination as to who is and is not PKK. Our departure is advantageous to Russia and Iran and may solidify those relations with the Turks and the Assad government. I am unsure how the oil and energy market is impacted as the geography of Turkey’s invasion will not likely affect oil infrastructure, but it remains to be seen how an effective Kurdish ally, trained by the U.S., could use those skills in retaliation against economic targets to hurt the Turks, Syrians, or Iranians.”
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Frank Kearney
Original Post 10/09/2019