Saudi Arabia ups the ante in Lebanon

On November 9th, Saudi Arabia advised its citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately, as did Kuwait (their neighbor and Gulf ally). This guidance comes on the heels of a contentious power consolidation by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS), and an attempted missile strike by the Iranian-backed Houthis rebels on the Riyadh Airport. Iran denied supplying the munitions to the rebels and accused Saudi Arabia of trying to escalate tensions. Additionally, the calls for evacuation come five days after the unexpected resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri. Hariri cited fear for his safety and the growing influence of Hezbollah (the extremist Shiite Muslim group with inexorable ties with Iran) as the cause for his decision.

These developments signal the forthcoming appointment of MBS as the King of Saudi Arabia, as well as the likelihood of military action against Lebanon. Much like its proxy war fought in Yemen, Saudi Arabia will attempt to exert its military strength and undermine Iran’s influence in the region. In a statement addressing Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State Affairs re-affirmed that it “won’t accept Lebanon taking part in a war against Saudi Arabia. The Saudis will take all political measures and more to confront Hezbollah.” Unlike in Yemen, geography will not favor or advantage a Saudi military strike in Lebanon. Any military intervention would require if not coordination, at least acknowledgement of Lebanon’s neighbors, Jordan and Israel. Furthermore, the threat in Lebanon is a well-trained and well-equipped professional military unlike the rebel force the Saudi military faced in Yemen. MBS shocked the region with his recent internal political reformations and appears willing to go to extraordinary measures to project his vision of an adaptive and overtly bellicose Saudi Arabia.

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