Key Points:
- U.S. remains committed to diplomatic relations with Venezuela
- U.S. military will not intervene in power disputes in Venezuela
- Maduro’s connections with Iran, Russia, and China are significant considerations for the Trump administration
Background:
The once prosperous South American nation has been caught in a years-long downward spiral, leading to growing political discontent. Hyperinflation, power outages, and food and medicine shortages have fueled outrage. In response to deteriorating conditions, more than three million Venezuelans have fled the country. Venezuela’s President, Nicolás Maduro, was first elected in April 2013 after the death of his socialist mentor and predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Maduro won by a thin margin of less than two percentage points. His limited popularity has only waned since 2013 and his recent election is widely contested as a sham.
U.S.- Venezuela relations have long been strained. During the George W. Bush administration, Venezuela asserted that the U.S was behind a failed coup against Chavez. In 2008, Venezuela expelled a U.S. ambassador, and sanctions against Venezuela have been a regular element of diplomatic relations.
What Has Happened:
On January 23rd, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido, declared himself interim president, earning support from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, and other South American countries. Shortly after Guido’s announcement, President Trump formally recognized Guaido as the legitimate leader of Venezuela and praised his plan to hold elections – prompting socialist leader, Maduro, to rebuke the U.S. and break relations. U.S. diplomats have been given 72 hours to leave the country. However, the U.S. has refused to comply as the demand does not come from the legitimate head of state.
Mr. Guaido entered politics in 2011 when he was elected to the National Assembly. In 2016, he became a representative for his home state and in January of this year, opposition parties chose him to lead as a moderating candidate. Guaido, who attended college in the U.S., cited Venezuela’s constitution declaring a vacancy in the president’s seat is to be filled by the head of the national Legislature until new elections are called.
Despite the political unrest, it appears Maduro still has the military in his corner. Following the announcements, top military commanders showed their support for Mr. Maduro. Fellow authoritarian leaders in Russia, China, and Turkey followed suit.
Why it Matters:
Reasserting U.S. global influence is hard, complicated work. This should never be a surprise. The past couple of decades have provided ample opportunity for U.S. intervention and influence in a fledgling Venezuela. China and Russia were quick to oblige. Russia has been a strong military supporter of both Chavez and Maduro, and China has been generous in its economic support of Venezuela. Maduro also maintains close ties with Iran and Hezbollah. It is in the U.S.’ strategic interests to ensure this support and connection, in the Western Hemisphere, is severed. Perhaps unsurprisingly (though disconcerting) our NATO ally, Turkey stands firmly behind Venezuela’s corrupt socialist tyrant Maduro. Instability in Venezuela risks the rest of the continent. As Venezuelans flee, neighboring Brazil and Colombia will be burdened, and their developing infrastructure will be stressed to a potentially debilitating point. The recent events highlight the importance of continued diplomacy. It can be very hard to return to normal relations once you cut all diplomatic ties. Iran is a perfect example. Ordering “non-essential diplomats” out is not unusual when there is a perceived threat against the embassy. However, the president’s decision not to close the embassy is significant and signifies the U.S.’ desire to remain engaged diplomatically. A military intervention in Venezuela will only occur in the event that the U.S. needs to evacuate American citizens and personnel. Venezuela’s oil, proximity, and global partnerships ensure its vitality to U.S. interests. Continued engagement, albeit strained, will remain a priority for the Trump administration.
Original Post 1/25/2019