Month: March 2022

Tentative 15-Point Neutrality Plan to End War in Ukraine

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 What has Happened:

  • Progress has been made on a tentative 15-point plan to end the war in Ukraine which would include a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian forces if Ukraine would agree to a limit on its armed forces and declares neutrality (similar to Austria or Sweden).
  • This plan would require Ukraine to agree not to join NATO and provide a guarantee that it would not allow foreign militaries to establish bases on Ukrainian soil or accept foreign weapons into the country.
  • However, Ukraine would be able to continue to maintain its own military.
  • In exchange, Ukraine would accept protection from allies such as the U.S., the UK, and Turkey.
  • The real questions include what the security guarantees would look like (and if Russia would accept this type of agreement) and how effective it would be as there was an agreement established in 1994 and that did not deter Russia from invading last month.
  • Whether these talks result in a ceasefire or a more formal agreement remains to be seen and the threat still exists that Russia is using these discussions as a front to regroup and continue their offensive.
  • While Russian forces have been bogged down and the invasion is behind schedule, the shelling of Kyiv continues, and Ukraine is in the process of launching a counter offensive.
  • President Zelensky addressed the U.S. Congress earlier today in a plea to ask for more assistance, including the implementation of a no-fly zone.

Why it Matters:

“Any negotiated settlement requires an immediate third party (think UN sanctioned) observer force to keep the peace as specified in a ceasefire agreement. Longer-term neutrality and security guarantees are still problematic. Agreements must be enforced. If Russia’s aggression resumed post the security agreements, it still would place NATO in a potential shooting war with Russia. A security guarantee could be interpreted as tantamount to NATO membership.” – General James “Spider” Marks

Russian Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facility

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  • Last night, after shelling by Russian forces, a fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, the largest in Europe, and supplies more than 20% of Ukraine’s electricity.
  • While the fire was isolated to a training area, firefighters were able to contain the fire before it spread to the nuclear reactors and there were no signs of radiation leaks.
  • While the staff is still running the plant operations, Russian forces now control the facility.
  • While this incident could have been much worse, NATO is still rejecting the concept of a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine for fear of a broader conflict.
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he will seek an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting.
  • Currently, Kyiv is still under siege and Kharkiv is under heavy aerial bombardment.
  • Russian forces have taken Kherson and are moving toward Mykolaiv in an effort to take control of the Black Sea coast and potentially cut Ukraine off from international shipping.
  • Russian forces are also preparing for an amphibious assault as part of a plan to attack Odessa.
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Europe for the next week, traveling to Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia to assure allies of U.S. support.

 

Why it Matters:

“My view on the attack is that it was to control the nuclear power infrastructure. I believe what we saw was ill-disciplined fire by Russian soldiers and leaders who don’t understand the construction of the plants nor what the outcome could be. A nuclear radiation release from a melt down or core breach would be much longer lasting than the fallout from a surface blast. Until you shut down the reactors in a breach or melt down, the release continues and rides the wind as already indicated. I think Peter’s assessment in today’s T-report is accurate, food and fuel revenue will be what increases pain for the Russian people, but what would it take for them to rise up (against Putin)? Not there yet from news reporting in Moscow.” – General Frank Kearney