Month: October 2020

CONFLICT BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA

What has Happened:

For two weeks, tensions and violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been on the rise as the international community tries to mediate and simultaneously vie for influence. Azerbaijan and Armenia, both former Soviet republics, began fighting for control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988. This conflict resulted in a full-scale war from 1992 until a ceasefire was agreed to in 1994. This fighting cost more than 30,000 lives. Today, the region is populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians, but it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Complicating the decades-long conflict is the influence and support exerted by Turkey for Azerbaijan, while Russia has supported the Armenians. The U.S., France, and Russia are attempting to broker a peace deal, but progress has been limited and faces further challenges given the proxy conflict between Turkey and Russia in other areas such as Syria and Libya.

Why it Matters:

“The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region continues to grow and is now taking a much more regional focus with the increasing amount of Turkish military support being provided to Azerbaijan in an effort to tip the balance of power. Turkey is the current key international player and is encouraging Azerbaijan’s aggression because others are reluctant to become involved. The current trend by Turkish President Erdogan has been to cause problems for NATO, the EU, the U.S., and Russia by acting in his own interests in every situation. While the U.S., the EU, and Russia are calling for a ceasefire, Turkey is providing increased military support to Azerbaijan including drones and loitering munitions. These are capabilities that Turkey has developed over many years and are some of the best in the world. They are capabilities that can change the balance of power in this type of conflict.

The U.S. is not expected to play a lead role since this conflict is not viewed as a strategic problem. The Trump administration is reluctant to become involved across the globe as the “world’s policeman” unless it impacts U.S. strategic interests (such as in places like the South China Sea). Secretary of State Pompeo went further this week in saying that the situation should not be “internationalized” and others should “stay out”. This is a signal to both Turkey and Russia. The European Union, NATO, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (Minsk Group) will have little impact on the conflict without U.S. leadership.

Russia has been reluctant to choose sides since it sells arms to both countries and trades oil with Azerbaijan. They are more closely aligned with Armenia from a cultural standpoint and can be expected to take a greater role if Turkey continues their escalation efforts. This could result in Russia providing military support to Armenia while Turkey supports Azerbaijan. We also see the two on opposite sides in both Syria and Libya. There are other conflicts like Bosnia and Herzegovina that took UN intervention and Northern Ireland that required U.S. diplomatic involvement to stop the fighting and reach a solution. Without a U.S. led international peace effort, we can expect Russia to play the largest role by attempting to prevent Turkey from influencing the situation against Armenian and Russian interests.” – General Robert Walsh

 

Original Post 10/09/2020