What has Happened:
On March 13th, President Trump declared a national emergency under the Stafford Act to free up additional federal funds to help fight the pandemic. [i] The administration has allocated two U.S. Navy hospital ships to ease the pressure on the healthcare systems on the East and West Coasts
The Trump administration is now considering the possibility of mobilizing the National Guard at the federal level to help in the fight against the coronavirus. Members of the National Guard and reserve would also help with logistics and medical support. While 27 states (and growing) have already activated the National Guard, if mobilized at a federal level, the president can deploy those forces across state lines and transfer the cost from the state level to the federal level.
As the situation evolves, the President may take other actions to mobilize the military, but General (ret.) Marks want to make very clear that these other actions are NOT martial law. General Marks explains how the military, National Guard, and Reserves would act in an “advise and assist” role – which is exactly what it sounds like, they are there to advise and assist existing authorities – not to replace them in any way, shape or form. This is why any call-up, or mobilization, should be viewed positively by the country.
General (ret.) Walsh is also encouraged by what he sees:
“From what I saw, the administration has put FEMA in charge of the overall response. This is an indicator that they want to be ready to expand federal support to the state governors on a large scale. NORTHCOM and the National Guard are very familiar with supporting FEMA in other natural disasters.” General Robert Walsh
Why it Matters:
Two of the members of our Geopolitical Intelligence Group weigh in on what could come next as the U.S. continues to ramp up resources to fight the virus.
We start with General (ret.) Marks who explores what can occur with respect to the Stafford Act and mobilization.
“Here are some options that we could see. I think it is probable that POTUS will invoke additional provisions of the Stafford Act within the next few days. Not sure there’s an external forcing function or event; timing for an announcement has more to do with the administration completing the planning and getting the “whole of government” aligned.
- Invoke additional provisions of the Stafford Act…additional funds become available and POTUS is authorized to put in place plans for “warning…emergency operations…mitigation.” These are broad powers that any lawyer can liberally interpret. POTUS could, not necessarily will, limit movement and require sheltering in place for a finite amount of time. The time limit would be a medical recommendation…one, two, x weeks.
- If the above occurs, POTUS should federalize the National Guard and mobilize the Reserves for very narrowly defined roles over a “to be determined” time frame. The mission requirements would be: medical, communications, first responders (law enforcement), combat service support commands for logistics missions, and some maneuver units for command and control.
- Establish medical trauma capabilities (combat support hospitals) to free up commercial hospitals so they can focus on covid-19 related illnesses.
- Establish communications (internet) networks to address increased demand.
- Deploy engineers and military police to assist community first responders with construction, mobility missions, and to assist in law enforcement.
- Deploy support units to facilitate transportation and delivery of all necessary life support (food, water, etc.)
- Troops on the ground in communities is a good thing. The presence of soldiers routinely follows a disaster…Detroit 1968, Los Angeles 1992, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita…and is designed to assist civilian authorities. The military remains in an “advise and assist” role. Civil authorities are in charge. However, what remains the same today is that the virus is the disaster. We’re in it and we have no clear understanding of when this disaster will be over. The federalization of the National Guard is an effort to anticipate the increasing pressures on civil authorities and to ameliorate conditions before they accelerate out of control.” General Spider Marks
General Walsh also discusses U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), an entity you might not be familiar with, in more detail.
“NORTHCOM synchronizes the DoD response in the U.S. They conduct planning and exercises at the FEMA/HHS/OSD/JS/NC level annually for pandemics such H5N1, Bird Flu, SARS, etc. SECDEF issues EXORDS to meet the response needs.
They normally start with mobilizing National Guard units in each state through their governors, but they can also move them across state lines as required. The Guard has many capabilities to support pandemics to include each state’s Civil Support Teams that are experts in dealing with weapons of mass destruction and also pandemics. The National Guard is trained as civilian soldiers within their communities to deal with any emergency response events to include mass casualties and pandemics. They periodically train to support pandemic events. The Guard also has field hospitals to support mass casualties. The two hospital ships, Mercy & Comfort, are in the news from an active duty support standpoint. The Title 10 Reserve and Active forces normally come in after using the National Guard forces. There are lots of options but as Secretary Esper said, the military should not be the first response option. General Robert Walsh
Bottom Line
These steps should be viewed as positive developments in our efforts to curb the damage done to individuals and the country by the coronavirus.
[i] The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act of 1988 (Stafford Act) provides the legal authority for the federal government to provide assistance to states during declared major disasters and emergencies (see Stafford Act). FEMA coordinates the response and additional federal support is provided as required/requested to the state and local governments.
Original Post 03/20/2020