Academy Securities Geopolitical Intelligence Group A Discussion Among Generals:
U.S. Airstrikes and Iranian Influence in Iraq
What has Happened:
Following an attack on Joint U.S.-Iraq military facilities, which resulted in the death of an American Contractor, the U.S. conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against five facilities. The Pentagon says that they are linked to an Iranian-backed militia. On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi condemned the U.S. air strikes on the Iranian-backed bases.
Why it Matters:
“Iran’s attacks in Iraq against U.S. presence is expected. Iran will continue to push aggressively where it can for two reasons: (1) Iran will attack U.S. presence in Iraq knowing that their military arm, the IRGC, can absorb the blowback – both kinetically and politically – that inevitably occurs following their attacks. (2) U.S. led sanctions against the Tehran regime are suffocating the Iranian economy. The Iranian leadership is feeling the heat, big time. They need to demonstrate that they can still act and exert their influence.” – General Spider Marks
“Spider has it exactly right. Our sanctions are driving Iran to lash out however they can. First were the attacks on the oil tankers, then the attacks on the Saudi oil production facilities, and now attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. The U.S. response was expected and disproportional in strength to demonstrate resolve.
Expect these “tit for tat” attacks to continue. Key to watch will be the Iraqi government’s response since their security forces were also targeted in the IRGC backed militia attacks while the government has continued to accept Iran’s influence within Iraq. The government is between a rock and a hard place as their security forces are partnered with U.S. forces.” – General Robert Walsh
“I agree with both, but there may be an additional nuance. With the on-going protests, the resignation of Iraq’s Prime Minister, President Saleh’s threat to resign if the Basra’s mayor is appointed as the new Prime Minister, and Iran’s historical deep involvement in Basra – this could be an Iranian attempt to change the narrative regarding U.S. “perceived influence” in selecting a new Prime Minister. It will be interesting to see if this stimulates new and/or increased Shia protests and militia activity support in Iraq.” – General Mastin Robeson
Original Post 12/30/2019