Month: February 2019

Violence in Venezuela

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Does the violence at the border indicate a higher probability of U.S. military intervention?

“I think the violence and the Trump administration’s positioning increases the probability of military intervention. This is akin to Obama’s “red line” for chemical weapons in Syria. If President Trump is not able to follow through on ousting Maduro and ensuring Guaido is president, he will face similar criticism. This increases the likelihood that the President will ensure Guaido’s success.” 

 

What are the next steps for the U.S.?

“Finding a way to peaceably transition power. The invasion of Haiti could potentially serve as a model where Jimmy Carter, Sam Nunn, and Colin Powell met with General Cedras, the dictator of Haiti. Under the threat of an airborne assault from the 82nd airborne division, with planes in the air, Cedras finally capitulated. A similar carrot and stick approach would work well here. Have a combat force prepared for action with a peacekeeping force also ready to go. Send a high-profile delegation to Caracas and negotiate Maduro a condo in Costa Rica (as was done for Cedras) or threaten U.S. military intervention.”

 

Who are the most important international players as it concerns influence with Maduro? Lima Group? China? Russia? U.S./EU?

“Organization of American States is the key international player here in organizing a solution. Those actors that run counter to American purposes include China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah – though China will back Guaido if he appears headed for power. The others will work hard to undercut American influence and success.”

 

What are the indicators the U.S. is preparing for a direct military response? 

“Airplanes flying from Fort Bragg. Increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. A carrier strike group from the Atlantic Fleet moving into the Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Venezuela.”

 

What else should be considered when evaluating the crisis in Venezuela?

“Florida is a battleground state politically. It has a huge Venezuelan and Cuban expat population. Both groups are pro Guaido, generally speaking. It makes domestic political sense for the President to support Guaido. Also, Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves. Having a friendly Venezuela would be good for the world. Also, disrupting the communist/socialist/terrorist ties with Cuba, Russia, and Iran would be good for U.S. foreign policy.”

Brigadier General Anthony J. Tata 

 

Original Post 2/26/2019

Trump‐Kim Summit Round two

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Key Points:

  • On February 27th, President Trump and Kim Jong‐un will meet for a second summit
  • Clear guidelines for inspections should result from the meeting
  • China remains a key influencer on North Korea

Background:

  • Since 2014, we have seen a swift advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities as well as an escalation in hostilities towards the West.
  • Publicly, tensions with North Korea peaked during the Summer of 2017, when the Kim regime tested and showcased their intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities.
  • After more than a year of heated rhetoric between the two, President Trump and Kim Jong‐un met last June for an in‐person summit in an effort to ease tensions.

What Has Happened:

North Korea has not conducted any missile tests since the Singapore summit last year. Before the 2018 meeting, a North Korean leader had not visited South Korea for over 65 years, and the leaders of the two countries had not met for at least 10 years. Currently, there is an open dialogue between Kim and the South Korean President Moon Jae‐in. Next week, President Trump and Kim Jong‐un will have a second meeting, this time in Vietnam.

Why it Matters:

Last year’s summit was historic but left many observers with questions. While little in the way of concrete details came from the summit, the impact on Kim’s overt antagonistic behavior can’t be questioned. Nonetheless, this summit will demand a more tangible framework for denuclearization. The Trump administration has used sanctions to pressure North Korea and will leverage this influence (in an element of quid pro quo) to gain access to North Korea and validate the alleged dismantling of its nuclear capabilities and facilities. It is vital for the U.S. to have a baseline of knowledge of the North’s current nuclear capacity. The goal of the Hanoi Summit is to establish a path for denuclearization. That Kim will be willing to completely forgo his nuclear capabilities is aspirational; however, this remains the objective of the negotiations. On the heels of the Trump‐Kim Summit is the proposed deadline for China‐trade talks. We can’t forget how crucial China’s influence is concerning North Korea. Expect the slow and deliberate acts of diplomacy to continue but with a few more details on how the U.S. can better verify North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and their supposed destruction.

 

“In Hanoi, the summit must be another set of “tactical firsts”…the President must describe a path to sanctions being lifted in exchange for an “invitation” (yes…an invitation) from Chairman Kim to international nuclear inspections. Anything else is “talk talk”…and we’ve had seven decades of that.”

Major General (Ret.) James A. “Spider” Marks

 

Original Post 2/26/2019