Month: August 2018

 Key Points:

·         Brazil is experiencing a surge in violent crime

·         The legitimacy of Brazil’s government is plagued by accusations of corruption

·         Concern is rising over the influx of military leaders running for political office

·         The crisis in Venezuela is a destabilizing factor

 

Background:

South America’s largest and most populated country, Brazil, is experiencing economic, social, and political turmoil. Seemingly caught in the global trend of right-wing movements, Brazil’s likely next president is running on a platform to end corruption and empowering security forces to crack down on criminals. Brazil, a young democracy, has a history of authoritarian military leadership. Given the population’s general discontent, how vulnerable are Brazil’s democratic institutions?

 

What Has Happened: 

The murder rate in Brazil has seen a startling increase stemming from rival gang activity vying for territory in a nation bordering the world’s three most prolific cocaine producers. Brazil is not only a significant consumer of amphetamines like crack and cocaine, but it also acts as a vital transportation hub for the drugs’ pathway to Europe and Asia. Increased violence has impacted Brazil’s economy and future by driving away tourists and wealthy, educated Brazilians. While Brazil does not keep accurate records of citizens who have emigrated, there has been a 40% increase in voters registering to cast their ballots abroad. Violence is a primary reason for the exodus, especially in Rio, where the near-bankrupt state government is struggling to provide security forces with necessary equipment.

 

Why it Matters:

Driven by the rise of violence, Brazil’s respected military class has shown an increased interest in politics and political reform. Brazil’s military dictatorship lasted more than 20 years, leaving many wary of the rise of former military leaders seeking office.  Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right candidate and former Army Captain, is coming in second in the polls, only behind the imprisoned former president, and left-wing leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. These former Soldiers argue the values of the military will resolve the corruption in government that has led to increased violence and a failing economy. Few believe their country is stronger or financially healthier due to increased infrastructure investments. Spending in preparation for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games only ignited national concerns of political corruption, financial mismanagement, and highlighted the lack of aid to the impoverished population.  As the October elections approach, it remains to be seen how much the population’s dissatisfaction with their government will impact voter turnout. Additionally, it appears those military leaders seeking political reform and influence will likely achieve these ends through legitimate means. The US has identified Brazil as a key ally in establishing stability in South America and has increased their engagement in Brazil over the last eight years. However, even with increased US presence, the delicate situation in Brazil and neighboring Venezuela, leave it vulnerable to extreme political shifts and more economic and security instability. Since early 2017, more than 40,000 Venezuelan refugees have crossed the border into Brazil. Most refugees have settled in Roraima, Brazil’s most disadvantaged and isolated state, burdening an already ill-equipped system. Despite the massive influx of asylum seekers, Brazil’s current asylum system has remained unchanged for two decades.  In the areas affected, most of the support for Venezuelan refugees is provided by small charities and non-governmental organizations.  Much like the refugee crises born out of the conflicts in the Middle East, the United States and Latin America are vulnerable to the same cascading effects faced by Europe.  Xenophobic violence has broken out in the region where most refugees settle and there is a rise in right-wing rhetoric. As it stands, the US has showcased a willingness to prioritize this South American problem before it becomes a global one, but it remains to be seen if the Brazilian people will be as patient and strategic with their vote given the national challenges they face.

 

 “The South American military culture is one of extreme hierarchy and deference. This is not where Brazil will find a solution. Brazil is an alcoholic. The “harder right” is acknowledging that it’s ill and in a deep economic and social spiral. The “easier wrong” is thinking a military solution is possible.” All elements of power must weigh in, together. That’s called leadership, not cronyism.”

Major General Spider Marks

 

Original Post 08/24/2018