Month: January 2018

Iran Protests

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Background:

Iran is a country familiar with protesting as a means of radical change. Iran’s modern government resulted from the 1979 revolution, and this current wave of unrest is the largest since 2009. The Islamic Republic has fallen out of favor with many Iranians, and Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has lost steam and relevancy among the public.

What has happened:

Five days of protests across the country; resulting in more than 20 dead and hundreds arrested.

  • The protests are in response to a failing economy (youth unemployment approaching 40%), rising food and fuel prices, and widespread corruption.
  • The billions of dollars returned to Iran by the Obama Administration were an economic opportunity squandered… the people know it.
  • This is not merely an “intellectual middle class” annoyance; protests are widespread, diverse, and angry.
  • Protests demonstrate deep resentment and the limits of President Rouhani’s influence.

Why it matters:

Can the US exploit?

  • Use the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) inspections to reveal corruption in the regime.
  • Create the narrative… “corrupt Iranian leaders break terms of the JCPOA and personally benefit from lifted sanctions.”
  • This is textbook diplomacy…put Tehran on notice without firing a shot. The US provided foreign aid and only ruling elites benefit. Internal unrest challenges the existing government’s corruption and its legitimacy.

 

“Iran has long been isolated by its national leadership…yet amazingly aware of the progressive and changing world around it. Now, the Iranian people are calling their national leadership’s bluff…lifting sanctions has done nothing for the people. At increasing risk, Iranian leadership will continue to try and suppress the voice of the people.”

Major General (Ret.) Mastin M. Robeson

Year In Review

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As we say goodbye to 2017 and look onward to 2018, we reflect on this past year and the issues at the forefront of headlines and individual consciousness. Enjoy Academy Securities year in review.

 

North Korea:

23 missiles fired in 2017, one hydrogen bomb test, and three ICBM tests; all successful and demonstrated a capability to strike the United States.

 

  “The US should declare North Korea a nuclear-capable nation immediately. That inevitable step puts the Kim regime in a more precarious position…and Kim knows it.  Be careful what you ask for.”

Major General (Ret.) James “Spider” Marks

 

Cyber:

Cyber activity, the only ungoverned “domain of war.” North Korea, with the help of China, continuously modernizes its cyber capability, to include this summer’s “wanna cry” virus. Russia’s online activity remains an existential threat to the United States, and our civilian infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to cyber threats.

 

“Expect cyber-attacks to continue to grow in intensity, scale, volume, and complexity…Russia’s approach to information warfare will continue to leverage disinformation through social media…the arms race for artificial intelligence (AI) continues to accelerate…..”

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Rhett Hernandez

 

Counterterrorism:

Iraqi and Iranian leaders declared ISIS militarily defeated in Iraq and Syria. ISIS still holds territory in countries around the world but has been brutally disrupted by a US-backed bombing campaign and advancing ground forces. Despite military defeats, the spread of ideology and lone wolf actors both remain relevant terror considerations.

 

“The defeat of the ISIS geographic caliphate makes them more difficult to find, fix, and finish…expect more violence, especially, in Western nations…they hate us more than atheist Russia or China.”

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Frank Kearney

 

National Security Strategy:

The Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) focuses heavily on strategic international partnerships. The NSS highlights a shared economic defense burden. The document compels our international partners to invest a larger percentage of their GPD into their own security architecture as a cost of global security.The NSS brings attention to China and Russia as two countries that “challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” Among the chief threats listed in the NSS are “rogue regimes” North Korea and Iran. The Trump Administration’s strategy calls for continued US military action against terrorist groups like ISIS and combating radicalization in the United States.

 

“…quickly apply the increased budget to re-arm, re-fit, and repair our aged military capabilities in four critical areas….drones, cyber, naval shipping, and aviation. The tension between intelligence collection and civil liberties will not abate; it will, in fact, intensify as we uncover more threats within our borders.”

Major General (Ret.) Mastin Robeson

 

2017 is nearly in our rear-view mirror as we stare 2018 in the face. The year highlighted global shifts; elements of insecurity continue in the year ahead. Geopolitics remains volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. Academy Securities’ Geopolitical Intelligence Group is committed to providing the most relevant and up to date insights on these events. Below is a link to the analysis we brought you this year. Happy reading and Happy New Year!