Month: October 2017

Iran Deal In Question

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President Trump’s decision to decertify the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has raised questions and concerns across the globe about the future of the U.S.-brokered, multilateral deal. Many of those questions will have to wait until we see how Congress chooses to respond. In the meantime, it is necessary to acknowledge the impact that the President’s announcement makes today.

Engagements and compromise with Iran have long been criticized. Since its completion, concerns over sunset clauses and inspection protocols in the JCPOA have drawn attention. However, this is our first real engagement with Iran after decades of sanctions and diplomatic isolation. It is better to engage and gather intelligence rather than distance ourselves; leaving information gaps that may lead to uninformed policy decisions and the potential for violent conflict.

This is not to say that there are not very real concerns about the destabilizing actions of Iran.  However, these activities should be considered in the context of our shared objectives in the Middle East and the impact they have made in the way of containing ISIS.

Undoubtedly, increased aggression from Pyongyang has impacted President Trump’s reluctance to support JCPOA. International strategic patience has brought the world a nuclear North Korea. So, what now? What is the impact in the region and beyond if America reneges? How will it influence further diplomacy with the ever-increasing threat of North Korea? And importantly, where does it leave America’s credibility to negotiate and influence global policy in an environment where Russia and China are actively vying for an expanded role in the world?

The way ahead resides in Congress. Moving forward, congressional sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are a wise step to pressure Iran decoupled from the JCPOA. Ultimately, the US stands to benefit from a measured but fulsome engagement with Iran.  We can do both. We should.

Trend Lines

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Yes, we live in interesting times.  The traditional power paradigms are shifting and it’s fair to say that “studied ambiguity” defines our current state of affairs. We must stay attuned to our evolving world or we’ll undoubtedly fail to be a leader in it.

Let’s break it down. For the sake of this conversation, the world consists of seven regions: East Asia, South Asia, Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Russia. Some might disagree with the groupings but conventional wisdom supports this arrangement.

On top of these regions we must place the megatrends that are arguably shaping our world.  These game-changers will determine our world in 15-20 years. Here’s my short list of the four megatrends we must embrace:

  1. Potential for Increased Conflict. We’re in a period that can be called an intergenerational “continual state of conflict.” Challenges to existing world order are not diminishing. The elimination of barriers to global migration and movement combined with the growth of violent extremism has brought violence home. We are all at risk. There is an obvious reaction to and a rejection of “open borders.” Elections in America and Europe reflect a desire to strike individual bargains and to shut the door to others. This retreat produces a self-fulfilling prophecy. A lack of interaction creates a lack of familiarity leading to diminished trust. Everyone will become suspect.
  2. Regional Instability. This regional spillover will create the conditions for instability short of war and conflict but damaging to human progress. We must agree that being a demographically eclectic nation enhances our strength across all elements of national power. We can leverage this advantage by being an open and confident society. If we shut the door, we lose trust. If we lose trust, we default to unhealthy forms of competition, not cooperation.
  3. New Technologies. We are on a steady technological march toward facilitating full transparency among individuals, nations, and non-state actors. In fact, there’s a good argument that secrets may no longer exist. Individuals have increasing power at their fingertips. How we engage with all the divergent aspects of nature, disease, markets, and each other will take a collective effort to navigate. Will technology force us to engage or will we choose to drop off the grid and further isolate ourselves? Trustworthiness will dominate decision-making.
  4. America’s Global Influence. The world is a better, more ordered place when the United States Over the past decade, the US has chosen to demur internationally. We’ve been in the middle of America’s most protracted war yet we’ve chosen not to exert our strength and influence broadly. It’s like America suddenly became a “one ball juggler”, incapable of focusing on anything but the exigency of the moment. Goodness, even during World War II when outcomes were still very much uncertain, the US was the architect of the post-world order. No small feat, but one no other nation could perform.  What happens now? Does America lead internationally or demur? We can make America great again and lead globally at the same time.

Every region will respond uniquely to these megatrends, each reaction having a significant impact on our future national security.

The Far East.  China becomes an unchallenged world economic power. However, America chooses to compete with both China and Russia in the Far East for security dominance. The US-North Korean relationship will remain tense but hostilities will not break out on the peninsula. With America’s laser focus on North Korea, China emerges the winner economically in the region. China’s and Russia’s “peacekeeper” status rises by averting a US-NK conflict.

The Mid East. The struggle for the center of Islam continues but moderate Arabs remain dominant. Violent extremism wanes but remains a viable ideology for the youth of today as they mature. They either have opportunities other than radicalization or they embrace it. The region will unravel in Iraq and Syria. Both countries will become Balkanized with the establishment of an independent Kurdistan in Iraq, and then after Assad’s departure, Syria will collapse into subparts. The House of Saud is very vulnerable as regional economic diversity migrates beyond oil and gas. With the legalization of women driving we have seen the first steps toward Arabian social modernity beyond economic factors. Remember the collapse of the Soviet Union started with small steps; once begun, “Perestroika” was irreversible. Coerced conflict against Iran or Yemen could divert attention on further progressive openings. Iran will have nukes and the IAEA inspection protocols will surprisingly ensure compliance, most particularly on the Revolutionary Guards’ previously unchecked influence.

South Asia. India and Pakistan relations are not cherry. Tension still exists.  Routine military engagements and cross border firings occur…and this is between two nuclear powers.  The distrust is too deep, too well defined. India has the real chance to be a global technology and urbanization leader. Pakistan must acknowledge its complicity vis-à-vis Afghanistan’s internal struggles. It will never progress beyond its current political and economic malaise until it suppresses extremist activity in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.  Pakistan will enjoy the full backing of the United States once that occurs.

Europe. The EU will resist its far-right leanings and remain viable. A united states of Europe is far stronger than a divided Europe.  A unified Europe is the world’s largest trading body but more significantly it leans toward the United States for its moral, historical, ethical, and political moorings. Each country within a divided Europe would tip east and look much like Europe between the wars…striking its own deals: economic alignments with China and security arrangements with Russia.

Latin America. The growing middle class economically and politically will not accept government programs that do not work. Political activism has extended to women and the indigenous tribes. Their expectations are far different. The demand for commodities and services will only increase with an expanded political base. Governments must provide or be challenged…. hopefully by a peaceful transfer of power and not the region’s historical option to exact change through violence.

Sub-Saharan Africa.  The region has an excellent opportunity to adopt the best technology solutions across all industry verticals and government’s elements of power but must tackle political corruption head on. Sub-Saharan Africa has no legacy IT systems that must be adapted or reformed. They have very little in terms of IT infrastructure and are, therefore, not limited to narrowly defined, practical solutions to correct what’s currently inadequate. They get to start fresh, no predisposition toward any solution. The most significant challenge to accomplishing what could be an economic miracle is government corruption, a constant in sub-Saharan Africa. It’s all about incentives…integrate the best, eliminate the worst. How that gets accomplished is beyond me.

Russia.  Russia remains in decline and trends are holding Russia back….sagging living standards,  how to cope with security challenges from criminal and violent extremist organizations, and a pervasive concern for external threats. Resultantly, these conditions can lead to the centripetal pull of nationalism which is not healthy for Russia or the global community of nations. Moscow can not afford to merely observe international events but it must resist a self correction that attempts to influence events externally only to repeat another Crimea-like annexation. Not good for anyone. Ironically and sadly, Russia could emerge as a global “peacekeeper” by staying distant and seemingly “an uninterested third party” in ongoing conflicts. Except in Syria, Russia may be suited for the role. Historically, I am more than skeptical.

Regardless of how the next decades evolve and international order is challenged, there are certainties that must be acknowledged. Under any scenario, there will be competition. America must not lose its position as a steady and predictable force in influencing global events. The world is a more hybrid place than ever before. NGO’s, non-state actors, financial markets, multinational enterprises, and scientific discoveries all have equal weight in shaping events. This globalization and transparency will ensure that the best ideas that emerge on the horizon can be realized…hopefully for the better.