The current tension on the Korean peninsula today is palpable. Conditions on any given day are always in a state of guarded calm. However, the accelerated North Korean nuclear developments and our President’s “don’t test my patience” red line highlight the diplomatic razor’s edge between normalcy, an acceptable accommodation of the brutal regime in Pyongyang, and the reality of war.
In light of these conditions and the world’s elevated concern, the winter Olympics next February in South Korea deserve attention and a measured discussion. There’s something uniquely poignant about the Olympic games. The Olympic games have weathered two world wars, deadly acts of terrorism, numerous economic depressions, and countless other global controversies. We can only assume that its resiliency will once again be tested in February 2018, as the games take place on the increasingly volatile and unpredictable Korean peninsula.
If current diplomatic tensions between North Korea and the West continue to escalate, and North Korea’s rapid development of its nuclear and missile arsenals remains unabated, the security of the 2018 Olympic city, Pyeongchang, South Korea, could be tested. North Korea has an extensive arsenal of accurate short-range ballistic missiles and is developing its long-range capability at an alarming rate. In order to accurately measure threat, it is necessary to gauge both capability and intention. North Korea has the capability to strike the south and shows little regard for restraint. Their real intentions, however, remain unknown. As the friction on the Peninsula worsens with each passing day, it is likely that the South Korean government will host a tense Olympic games this winter.
Preparing for a North Korean attack on Pyeongchang is a strategic challenge for the South Korean military and security forces. Pyeongchang is located in the Gangwon Province, just 50 miles away from the Demilitarized Zone, the border separating the two nations. Located in the Taebaek Mountains, the Olympic city is isolated, with few main service roads leading in and out. While steps are already being taken to improve the city’s transportation infrastructure (such as a high-speed rail service and a highway expansion project), Pyeongchang remains compartmentalized…few options in or out. An attack on the Olympic city would undoubtedly produce widespread chaos.
While the historic “Olympic Truce” encourages all countries to come together for the games, the Olympics have never been immune to controversy, danger, and tragedy. The massacre of eleven Israeli Olympians in the 1972 Munich games, the U.S. and Soviet boycotts, and the pipe bombing at the 1996 Atlanta games all serve as grim reminders that the world’s attention can stimulate and encourage geo-political calamity. While tensions on the peninsula have always been high, and did not disturb the 1988 Summer Olympics in Seoul, the current diplomatic climate in the region is unlike ever before. Over the past two decades, North Korea has become increasingly bellicose due to its unpredictable leader, who, unlike his predecessors in the Kim dynasty, finally possesses unprecedented nuclear and missile capabilities.
Given North Korea’s recent surge in international relevancy, newly elected South Korean president Moon Jae-In seeks an elusive peace between the two countries, with hopes of ending the decades-long historical conflict. Throughout his campaign, candidate Moon ran on a platform that emphasized increased diplomatic, economic, and cultural engagement with the Kim Jong-Un regime in the north. In fact, over recent months, President Moon has urged the International Olympics Committee to extend an Olympic invitation to Pyongyang, hoping North Korea’s participation will promote a reduction in tension.
To be sure, peaceful co-existence is by no means a novel approach. President Moon’s diplomatic approach is reminiscent of former South Korean president Kim Dae-Jung’s Sunshine Policy. Initially unveiled in 1998, the Sunshine Policy emphasized peaceful cooperation and short-term reconciliation between the two nation states. The policy immediately received international praise, as President Dae-Jung, who was lauded as the “Nelson Mandela of Asia,” received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000. Despite initial promising success, such as the 2000 summit meeting between the two heads of state, the Sunshine policy ultimately ended in failure and at great cost to the south. It became obvious that even with South Korea’s best efforts, the North was not interested in reconciliation.
I was assigned to South Korea as a senior intelligence officer during the Sunshine policy era and witnessed the attempted thaw in relations. What a disaster. Despite the promising rhetoric, the north was really never on board. Their officials, however, gave every indication that the country would be interested in modifying its behavior if it led to reconciliation. Operating under that assumption, South Korea invested billions into joint projects that could bring the two countries together: the Kaesong Industrial region, a special economic zone along the border, and a railroad across the DMZ connecting north and south. The North, on the other hand, never remotely changed their ways. Seoul’s efforts went wholly unreciprocated, and the repressive North Korean regime remained in power. Today, South Korea has a president that hopes to replicate that same policy two decades later. While we can hope that North Korea will act in favor of regional peace and decreased tension, history cautions us to be skeptical.
With the XXIII Winter Games looming, we can only speculate how the recent North Korea narrative will play out. I anticipate that North Korea will participate in the Pyeongchang games, which clearly reduces the likelihood of an incident. While the North’s inclusion should grant us a brief sigh of relief, their involvement in the games is no guarantee of calm or restraint. While it would appear hugely careless for Pyongyang to threaten the games and provoke global condemnation, the regime in the north is fundamentally unpredictable. No one knows how this will play out, but an incident on the international stage could happen. The rule, “plan for the worst…hope for the best” applies.
The Olympic games offer North Korea two opportunities to assert itself. First, the Olympics provide perfect leverage for Kim Jong-Un. The Supreme Leader could threaten chaos at the games if the United States does not revoke sanctions, reduce the frequency of joint military tests with South Korea in the Asia-Pacific, or lessen the number of U.S. troops on the peninsula. Given Kim Jong-Un’s truculent disposition and the country’s enhanced conventional and unconventional military capabilities, the United States and South Korean alliance could be forced to alter its military posture. Second and perhaps more likely, the XXIII games may be the perfect occasion for Kim to strengthen his position among global powers, which is perhaps why we are witnessing this rapid expansion of his nuclear and missile arsenal. International validation of North Korea as a global nuclear power, in advance of the Olympics, would propel Kim into international stardom. North Korea could finally have the respect it’s been seeking.
In these next winter games, we will see if Lindsay Vonn has recovered from injury and if Shaun White is back to his former self. More significantly, however, we will see if North Korea can behave long enough for the world to come together in sport. Let’s hope we can be on the edge of our seats witnessing incredible athletic competition rather than worrying about North Korean bombast.