As a nation, we are presently consumed by the latest revelations about Russia’s objective to deepen its influence in our elections through aggressive cyber attack. The media has labeled this as “meddling,” which woefully understates its significance. Theirs was a campaign of computer network attacks designed to weaken our democracy. Our nation will survive and emerge stronger as a result.
Meanwhile, the world remains a dangerous and threatening place. While the ever-challenging political climates in North Korea, China, the South China Sea, the Middle East, and Europe will continue to capture front-page headlines over the coming months, the instability of East Africa (namely countries such as Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and South Sudan) cannot be overstated.
Political instability, armed conflict, and extremism, coupled with inadequate infrastructure and resource scarcity make the region of East Africa one of the most volatile in the world. Countries such as Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Kenya all hold similar reputations as unstable and dangerous while Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan are unremittingly seen as three of the world’s most violent nations. Political, economic, and diplomatic uncertainties in East Africa affect countries both within the region and around the globe. Millions of African lives have been lost, and many more have been displaced, due to regional unrest, civil war, and terrorist activity. Both local and global economies have felt these ripples as well. The Swahili Coast is home to highly sought-after natural resources such as fish and timber, and is host to one of the most popular maritime trade routes in the world. In fact, more than four million barrels of oil travel through Bab al-Mandeb daily, the eleven-mile strait between Djibouti and Yemen.
Kenya: The upcoming Kenyan presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on August 8th, has already begun to capture the attention of the international community. Just a decade ago in 2007, the post-election riots in Kenya and the ensuing police response left greater than a thousand Kenyans dead, while displacing hundreds of thousands in the process. In addition, the mayhem had damaging effects on the East African economy, given Kenya’s longtime reputation as a business, transportation, and trade powerhouse of the region. As August 8th looms closer, many pundits fear a repeat of that history. The opposition leader, Raila Odinga, and the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, have outwardly vocalized their strong distrust in the Kenyan voting system while Odinga has already been accused of promising violence throughout the county if he loses the race. While it is unlikely we will witness violence on a similar scale as in 2007, the ramifications could be far more severe. Kenya’s capital Nairobi and the port city of Mombasa have become increasingly critical to transportation and trade among fellow East African countries. In addition, over the past decade, the country has become progressively more popular among foreign investors. Kenya is now considered to be one of the top investment destinations throughout the entire continent. Major investors such as the United States, France, UAE, and China are now vulnerable to the effects of Kenya’s election violence. We can only observe if past is prologue.
Djibouti and Eritrea: Djibouti and Eritrea, two countries the size of New Jersey and Ohio respectively, are also under recent international scrutiny. In 2008, the two nations engaged in an armed conflict over their disputed shared border. The feud was short-lived, as peacekeeping troops from Qatar were deployed. However, on June 14th, almost nine years after the dispute first began, its troops withdrew. While neither of these two countries holds any real international clout, resumption of border conflict would have significant implications on trade through the Bab al-Mandeb. An armed conflict between the two countries on one side of the strait, coupled with the current ruthless Yemeni civil war on the other, would make the Bab al-Mandeb highly precarious for international merchant shipping.
Somalia: Any report on East African security would be incomplete without a brief discussion on Somalia. As reported earlier, Somalia is, and has notoriously been, one of the world’s most violent and unstable countries. While international players have done a remarkable job in thwarting piracy off of the Somali coast over the past half-decade, the country, on the contrary, has become no less violent. In fact, over the past ten years, terrorism within the nation’s borders has spiked, rendering the country one of the most dangerous in the world. This surge can likely be accredited to the rise of the Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab, which just recently surpassed Boko Haram as the most deadly organization on the continent. Al-Shabaab has launched attacks not only throughout Somalia in attempts to destabilize the incipient national government, but also in neighboring Kenya. The disturbing growth of Al-Shabaab will most likely worsen in the next several years. Host forces in Somalia are ineffective in combat and the United States is reluctant to provide substantive aid. While President Trump announced in mid-April that U.S. troops would be deployed to Somalia (its first deployment to that nation since 1994), the troops would be limited to conducting advisory role missions.
South Sudan: On July 9th, South Sudan observed its six-year independence anniversary in harrowing silence. President Salva Kiir cancelled the celebration, deeming it inappropriate for the government to spend money on festivities when so many citizens remained in need. South Sudan’s four-year civil war has devastated the country. The seemingly never-ending conflict has rendered their economy hopeless, yielding exorbitantly high inflation rates, while producing a food shortage of incomparable magnitude. Over half of the country’s 11 million person population faces severe food insecurity. To make matters worse, each of these struggles overshadow a cholera outbreak in the country that is now being considered by many as one of the worst in recent history. More than 1.8 million people have fled the country, over-burdening the infrastructures of neighboring countries. Here’s the challenge. Developed nations simply cannot allow further degradation of the South Sudan situation. If unabated, South Sudan will continue to demand more United States assistance (currently over $2 billion in aid) and will undoubtedly threaten the security and stability of an already fragile East Africa. Given the importance of the East African coast to foreign military bases, maritime trade, and oil shipping, western countries like the United States must stay engaged. In a world of competing priorities, this region arguably is among the many global issues that are deserving of our attention.
A mere handful of geopolitical issues continuously dominate presidential attention, media airtime, and newspaper headlines in the United States. While North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, the fight against ISIS in Syria, and the diplomatic dispute between Qatar and its Middle Eastern rivals are undoubtedly important, they mustn’t command our sole attention. Further escalation of conflict in East Africa has the potential to dramatically destabilize oil markets. Nearly all oil transit that departs from the Middle East towards North and South America travels along the East African coast, while a good portion journeys through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. Increased conflict in East Africa will have an enormous and permanent impact on the West and oil producing Gulf-states.